Computational models of complex systems will transform how we approach everything from urban design to healthcare
(Image credit: Reallusion)
Consider your drive to work. How much traffic you encounter will depend on a number of factors: the weather on any given day; the quality of public transport and cycle routes; the efficiency of the town planning in your city; how many people can afford to live within walking distance of their workplace, and so on. You can think of the workings of a city and how people move around it as a complex, dynamic system that is always reacting to changing circumstances. If we can better understand this system and visualise how it works, we can make decisions to improve its efficiency. And that’s where digital twins come in.
A digital twin is a computational model of a complex system that is continually updated with real-world data. The system being modelled could be a city, a manufacturing process, some industrial machinery or even biological systems within the human body. By creating a simulation of a system we can experiment with potential improvements to see how well they work before trying them in the real world. We can discover and understand connections between different parts of the system that were previously invisible to us. We can predict potential points of failure and take action before problems arise, and we can develop new products and medicines.
Digital twins are being applied in a vast range of different scenarios and are giving us new ways to solve problems and find efficiencies. Here are just some of the things we can expect to happen in the future.
In some places, it’s already happening. For example, Virtual Singapore is a highly detailed 3D model and digital twin of the city-state that uses real-time data to model everything that’s going on. Millions of photographs and laser scans were used to capture the topography and urban environment to create a 3D replica. Data from mobile phones, sensors placed in the environment and other sources is used to keep the model up to date.
Virtual Singapore is used in a number of ways to improve and optimise the city. New infrastructure proposals such as roads and bridges can be simulated and tested prior to implementation, as can transportation systems. Traffic flow, congestion and air quality can be modelled. It’s also used for devising plans for disaster management. The model can simulate what would happen in the event of a flood or an earthquake, and this can be used to make the environment more resilient, and come up with better emergency plans.
Digital twins will bring many different data sets and technologies together
Real-time crowd simulation of 150.000 pedestrians in a browser - YouTube
It is often the case that a lot of information is held about a system, but it’s all in separate silos with no good way of bringing it all together. Digital twins can be that way. For example, a digital twin of a city brings together visual information such as laser scans, photographs and 3D models, and combines it with geographical information, spatial analytics, real estate data, human metrics and predictive simulations.
Crowd simulation technology within a digital twin of a physical space is particularly powerful for optimising that space. Although individual people all have their own unique journeys through a space, crowds move in ways that can be simulated with predictive models. Crowd simulation technology can be used to predict what might happen in an emergency if people had to be evacuated quickly from a building, or if dangerous crowds formed following a large event. This information can be used to identify where bottlenecks might occur and take steps to resolve them. It can also help with event planning, so that steps can be taken in advance to make sure crowds move efficiently, and to optimise public transport in times of high demand.
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Biological processes are possibly the most complex systems we have to deal with, so there’s plenty to be gained from building digital simulations of them. Biochemists at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln are working on a digital twin of the human immune system which they hope will predict how a patient might respond to different treatments. It is also hoped that it will improve understanding of disease processes and aid in the development of new medicines. The long term goal is that in the future, every patient will have a personalised model of their immune system based on data about their health, vaccines they’ve had and diseases they’ve been exposed to.
Another example of biological systems being twinned is that of marathon runner Des Linden, who’s having her heart digitally cloned. Using an MRI scan and other data, scientists are creating a model that will predict how her heart will respond under extreme stress. For example, she could learn what condition her heart might be in at different points in a race, and use this information to optimise her performance. Modelling technology can also help when things go wrong; the video above shows how a digital twin can be used to improve treatment for people with heart failure.
In the future, our entire bodies might be modelled by digital twins, giving us advance warning of health problems and predicting how we might respond to different treatments or lifestyle interventions. It is also hoped that the earlier stages of drug testing will happen virtually, without the need for human or animal test subjects.
It will happen sooner than you think
According to a 2023 survey of “scientists, futurists and subject matter experts” by Tata Consultancy Services, digital twins are set to “become commonplace across business and society by 2035”. Half of the experts thought that “broad adoption” will occur in the healthcare sector within three years, although the full body digital twins are more likely to materialise towards the end of the ten year timeline. In the next few years we’re also likely to see digital twins of our homes, which will help with energy efficiency, predicting maintenance issues, virtual tours, improving safety and making things easier for people as they age.
Digital twins promise a future where the complex systems that govern our lives come with a virtual safety net, so we can predict problems before they arise and try out solutions without facing risk.
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